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Global macro intelligence · 0 economies ·

The world economy, legible in one screen.

Growth, prices, policy rates and stress across the economies that move everything else — read the shape first, the numbers second.

Static snapshot · click sync for live figures
World GDP
$109.0T
IMF estimate, current prices
Median growth
Across the board
Median CPI
Above the 2% consensus target
Debt stock
$315T
≈315% of world GDP
The world right now
The signal, read straight off the data — click any economy for its full report

The growth skyline

CPI under 3% 3–8% Above 8%

Every tracked economy, ranked by real GDP growth. Bar height is the growth rate; colour is how hot prices are running underneath it — so a tall red bar is fast growth built on fast inflation, which rarely lasts.

Global economic heatmap

Click any country to open its report

The world, coloured by the data

Scroll to zoom · drag to pan

Drag to spin · scroll to zoom · click a country

Composite risk indicator

6 dimensions · 0 = calm, 100 = systemic stress
48
Elevated

Real headwinds, no systemic break. Inflation is still above target across most of the G20 and geopolitics is the loudest input — but credit and currency markets are functioning.

Country intelligence

Compare

Up to 6 economies, side by side

Selected economies (0/6)

Multi-dimensional radar

Every axis is normalised so further out = better. A wide, even shape is a healthy economy; a spiky one has a specific problem.

Indicator comparison

One measure at a time, ranked.

GDP growth history

Illustrative path — hit Sync live from World Bank at the top for the real annual series.

EconomyGDP growthInflationUnemployment Policy rateReal rateDebt/GDPMiseryRisk

Quantitative models

Stability · recession odds · Phillips · yield curves · correlations · shocks

Phillips curve

The claimed trade-off: lower unemployment should mean higher inflation. The regression line below is fitted live to the current cross-section — watch how weak it actually is.

log(π) = α + β·u · fitted by least squares across the tracked economies

Macroeconomic Stability Index (MSI)

Composite 0–100 across five dimensions — inflation, rate stability, debt sustainability, external balance, growth momentum. Higher = more stable. Computed live from the dataset, so it moves when you sync.

MSI = mean(inflation, rates, debt, external, growth) · each scored 0–100

MSI breakdown by component

Where each economy's stability actually comes from — and where it leaks.

Misery index

Okun's crude but honest measure: inflation plus unemployment. Are prices rising, and can I get a job?

Recession probability model

A logistic model over four signals. Not a forecast — a structured way of asking how many warning lights are on.

P = 1 / (1 + e^−z) · z = −2.4 + 1.5·inversion + 0.9·growth gap + 0.5·real-rate drag + 0.35·misery

Signal breakdown

Yield curves

2y vs 10y. When the 10y pays less than the 2y, the curve is inverted — historically the single best recession signal there is.

Curve table

Correlation engine

Pearson correlation between every pair of indicators, computed across all tracked economies. Green = they move together, red = they move against each other.

r = Σ(x−x̄)(y−ȳ) / √(Σ(x−x̄)² · Σ(y−ȳ)²)

Policy shock simulator

Push the world and see what breaks. Elasticities are illustrative, drawn from typical central bank model ranges — the point is the direction and rough magnitude, not false precision.

Transmission assumptions

+100bps → −0.4pp growth, −0.30pp inflation (with a lag). Oil +10% → +0.15pp inflation, −0.05pp growth. Tariffs +10% → +0.30pp inflation, −0.25pp growth. Effects scale with the horizon and are damped for economies already at extremes.

Modelled outcome

Before → after, for the selected economy.

Taylor rule calculator

What should the policy rate be? Start from neutral, then lean against inflation and the output gap. Compare the prescription with what the central bank actually did.

i = r* + π + a(π − π*) + b(y − y*)

Prescription

Taylor says
Actual rate
Gap

On potential output

y* is the growth rate an economy can sustain without overheating. It is unobservable — every estimate is a modelling choice, and the Taylor rule is famously sensitive to it. That slider is the honest version of the assumption most textbooks bury.

Global central banks

Rates, stance and cycle tracking · 8 majors

Rate history

Q1 2022 → today

tracking

Rate cycle comparison

All eight, same axis. The spread between them is the story.

Current policy rates

Where the eight sit today.

What the global rate gap means right now

Rate differential matrix

Carry signal — positive means the row's currency pays more than the column's. A big green number is an incentive to borrow in the column currency and invest in the row currency.

Forecast path

2026–2028 · consensus-style projections
Economy2026 GDP2027 GDP2028 GDP Path2026 CPI2028 CPIConverged?

"Converged" means inflation is back within striking distance of the 2% target by 2028. Note how many are not — that is the whole argument for rates staying higher for longer.

Scenario distribution

Probability-weighted, 12-month horizon

Ask the analyst

Grounded in the dashboard's own dataset
Engine: local · no key needed
Answers appear here. Every figure is pulled straight from the dashboard's data, so the analyst cannot invent a number it doesn't have.

Test yourself

Questions generated live from the data

The global wire

Snapshot
Wire digest — written from the stories below

LOCAL ENGINE