The world economy, legible in one screen.
Growth, prices, policy rates and stress across the economies that move everything else — read the shape first, the numbers second.
The growth skyline
Every tracked economy, ranked by real GDP growth. Bar height is the growth rate; colour is how hot prices are running underneath it — so a tall red bar is fast growth built on fast inflation, which rarely lasts.
Global economic heatmap
The world, coloured by the data
Scroll to zoom · drag to pan
Composite risk indicator
Real headwinds, no systemic break. Inflation is still above target across most of the G20 and geopolitics is the loudest input — but credit and currency markets are functioning.
Country intelligence
Compare
Selected economies (0/6)
Multi-dimensional radar
Every axis is normalised so further out = better. A wide, even shape is a healthy economy; a spiky one has a specific problem.
Indicator comparison
One measure at a time, ranked.
GDP growth history
Illustrative path — hit Sync live from World Bank at the top for the real annual series.
| Economy | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment | Policy rate | Real rate | Debt/GDP | Misery | Risk |
|---|
Quantitative models
Phillips curve
The claimed trade-off: lower unemployment should mean higher inflation. The regression line below is fitted live to the current cross-section — watch how weak it actually is.
Macroeconomic Stability Index (MSI)
Composite 0–100 across five dimensions — inflation, rate stability, debt sustainability, external balance, growth momentum. Higher = more stable. Computed live from the dataset, so it moves when you sync.
MSI breakdown by component
Where each economy's stability actually comes from — and where it leaks.
Misery index
Okun's crude but honest measure: inflation plus unemployment. Are prices rising, and can I get a job?
Recession probability model
A logistic model over four signals. Not a forecast — a structured way of asking how many warning lights are on.
Signal breakdown
Yield curves
2y vs 10y. When the 10y pays less than the 2y, the curve is inverted — historically the single best recession signal there is.
Curve table
Correlation engine
Pearson correlation between every pair of indicators, computed across all tracked economies. Green = they move together, red = they move against each other.
Policy shock simulator
Push the world and see what breaks. Elasticities are illustrative, drawn from typical central bank model ranges — the point is the direction and rough magnitude, not false precision.
+100bps → −0.4pp growth, −0.30pp inflation (with a lag). Oil +10% → +0.15pp inflation, −0.05pp growth. Tariffs +10% → +0.30pp inflation, −0.25pp growth. Effects scale with the horizon and are damped for economies already at extremes.
Modelled outcome
Before → after, for the selected economy.
Taylor rule calculator
What should the policy rate be? Start from neutral, then lean against inflation and the output gap. Compare the prescription with what the central bank actually did.
Prescription
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y* is the growth rate an economy can sustain without overheating. It is unobservable — every estimate is a modelling choice, and the Taylor rule is famously sensitive to it. That slider is the honest version of the assumption most textbooks bury.
Global central banks
Rate history
Q1 2022 → today
Rate cycle comparison
All eight, same axis. The spread between them is the story.
Current policy rates
Where the eight sit today.
What the global rate gap means right now
Rate differential matrix
Carry signal — positive means the row's currency pays more than the column's. A big green number is an incentive to borrow in the column currency and invest in the row currency.
Forecast path
| Economy | 2026 GDP | 2027 GDP | 2028 GDP | Path | 2026 CPI | 2028 CPI | Converged? |
|---|
"Converged" means inflation is back within striking distance of the 2% target by 2028. Note how many are not — that is the whole argument for rates staying higher for longer.